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And we are live Bitcoin 6646 right now guys the fomc meeting Live we're going to be watching the Press conference together because right Now these markets are more important Than ever we need to see a very bullish Close here and let me move the the the Tik Tock chat out of the screen real Quick we need to see a bullish close on The monthly today above $67,500 that is what every bullish ta Trader wants to see today let me go Ahead and write this line out draw this Line out for you guys on this horizontal Time or this this line right here for You guys so 67,500 and around $6 here for you guys That is what everybody is hoping we Close within the next five hours five Hours almost six hours until the candle Close on the month guys this is the most Important fomc meeting in history yes we Say that almost every single month but That's because the markets guys the Markets are more volatile than ever so That is not too far away $67,500 is not too far away if we do Close above that which could be decided Off this fomc meeting alone we could be Looking at an incredibly bullish month Of August if we do not okay if we do not We could end up seeing we could end up Seeing unfortunately a pretty LAN August Here so today guys we'll be breaking
Down our charts RTA we're going to be Looking over Twitter uh experts that are Going over technical an analysis I am Broken here I am excited here uh because This month does matter for these markets Guys the fomc breaking news I can go Ahead and give you guys the rate Cuts They have not changed anything uh the Federal Reserve did not change interest Rates for the month of July which was Expected we were prepared for this over The last couple of weeks been watching This like the NBA finals for you all but Of course we're leaving it unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5% so yeah make sure you guys hit that Like button share the stream get excited And of course uh get ready for what is Going to be an extremely volatile 30 Minutes guys you need to watch Jerome Powell speak he comes on in about 15 Minutes from now for the live press Conference and everything he says will Decide the future of these markets here Welcome in Sammy welcome in kjam Mao how You doing today uh Senza Malo Jesse Mozzle what's the deal with defi trade Hub no idea would have to check it out For you Chad here Chad Hope I Chad goes Chad I hope it crashes I do too man Maybe there'll be some good accumulation Zones for you but hey we all want to see Markets puff this is beyond belief Powell should immediately be fired
Coming from Diaz here have you already Pre repaid your followers for the hacks On your account um if you're in in talks Of the one that we got hacked like a Couple months ago they did a payout as Well uh if you have not received it make Sure you're in the telegram and just Reaching out to support uh but we did Filter through quite a bit of them so if You did not get that uh make sure that You're using one the right account and Two you're sharing of course uh the Screenshots and time stamps of that Actual event but I would have to double Check for the team for you NPC 451 uh But yes they did do a decent amount here I would like a dump and then a pump man Isn't that what everybody wants here Isn't that what everybody wants here uh We love Tucker Carlson how can I Transact from deck screener to Phantom Wallet uh transact transact interesting Question coming from Mark talsman here You can of course use um you can of Course use our telegram trading Bots if That's what you're you know referring to Uh but we'll check it out there um NPC Yeah dude no problem man again there was A couple people that I think didn't get Payback in the telegrams but I had them Like message me and they couldn't prove That they were they could have proved That were a hack so if it was you man no Worries make sure you're just in there
And have those time stamps send them to Me uh and can get you you know I can I Can help you out no problem there in That telegram uh pass that though guys Yes we're going to be watching over the Next 30 minutes here and of course over The next five hours we want to watch Bitcoin close Above This level this $667,500 Zone if we can close above that G to be very very very bullish for the Month of August here if you guys are on Tik Tok make sure you switch that screen You can go portrait mode turn the phone Sideways if you're on Twitter repost Comment and of course like this video And if you're on YouTube smash that like Button subscribe and comment in the live Chat to help us out with that media feed Here guys we got we are 10 minutes away Some really bullish things are on the Charts though right now some very very Bullish moments for one the Delta spread On bitcoin is way in the negative way in The negative look at this let's go to Max liquidity here for you guys uh we Are oversold massively here with a Negative 10 billion 13 billion Delta Spread traditionally when we do see a Negative teen Delta spread here on the Short positions of course we are looking For or sorry on the long positions we Are looking to see a short squeeze uh up In the markets you want to buy in the Red and you want to sell in the green
That's how this historically works so Seeing a massive a sea of red here going Into the fomc meeting is incredibly Incredibly bullish for these markets Thoughts on harar here $5 Super Chat From Mahon thoughts on har bar is a Project and rwa narrative I'm going to Be real with you brother hbar is not an Rwa narrative uh but hadera hashgraph Does have a great a pretty decent Console pretty decent product and I do Like them but uh you know I am going to Be more of a dag supporter at this point Uh hadera and what the smart contract Protocols or these you know hash craft Protocols need to do is really figure Out how they can drive volume and Transaction volume to their Network how They can incentivize developers so I'd Like to see more hackathons but I've Been a fan of hyera for a very long time Back well before they were you know in The hundreds of millions of dollars I Got into H bar first in October of 2020 at three cents before it ran all The way up to 70 sense so uh you know Har bar was a great play in the last Cycle I do believe it can perform again This cycle but I'm not going to be Looking at H bar as one of those Projects that does that 10 50 20x right Can it three four 5x uh of course of Course if we do get a breakout with Bitcoin but right now guys what is most
Important on these markets and I know You guys know this okay you don't want Me to say this but the reality of the Situation is we need Bitcoin to break Out we need more money we need new Liquidity to enter this market and Before that happens we're not going to Have alt season Your Meme coins are Going to continue to struggle your you Know altcoins like H bar all these Products guys will struggle as they are Following bitcoin's price action right Now so what is important is of course The overall health uh the the overall Health of the economy overall health of The crypto Market here and that is what We want to see out of this fomc meeting Which is going to be of course at 2:30 Pm. Eastern in 9 minutes so if you guys Haven't already share this with anybody That needs to watch this we'll be Breaking down these charts together we Saw a jump here two ago up to $70,200 we Have now dropped from $70,200 all the Way down to 66360 Bucks uh and I'm going to do this Live with you guys here but let's see if We can find some imbalances on the Market because we do want to find these Yellow imbalances this is very simple For people that are coming in okay if You don't know how this works when you See a yellow line that is a magnet price Loves to move to that price action you
Can see it was created even though the Price was down here it broke through That yellow line very very very very Easily that is an imbalance on that Market right there for you so none on The Daily here at the 100 the 100 time Frame but let's go to the the 4 Hour and Let's go to $50 let's see if we can Hover in and find anything that is going To be looking good so there's one below Us at $6,950 w maybe we're finding some Support here could be finding some Support here could be finding uh you Know maybe a local bottom uh here but we Could feel that imbalance here I am on a I'm very zoomed in now not always on the 4 Hour is it filled you want to be Looking at the daily it's very similar To your futures gaps however okay the Worst case scenario I see playing out Here is actually a bearish fomc meeting And a bearish outlook for the month of August and that is going to specifically Come from the Futures Gap here being Created on bitcoin so if you guys type In BTC BTC and go to the CME Gap here Bitcoin Futures we still have that Massive Gap below us here between 58,000 $7,800 and of course 61k now nobody Nobody wants to see this right I know This chat none of you want to see this Uh nobody on Twitter nobody on Tik Tok Nobody wants to see this play out of
Course you know because this would mean Guys 30% pullbacks 40% pullbacks on some Of your favorite altcoins and a lot of You are already down on your position so We do not necessarily want to see this It does not necessarily have to fill we Are testing that SMA right here check That out guys we are bouncing off of it So we could get a pretty strong bounce Uh moving higher to the $70,000 level uh And see a breakout here but again it's Not off the table 60 you know 57 to $61,000 not off the table just yet uh we Do have good news though we do have good News on the fear in greed index on the 24hour check it out you can see Duke Here is starting to sweat he's got a Sweat here this is the fear and greed Index if you guys know how this works You want to buy in the red and sell in The green baby uh and we are seeing Retail uh now become more bearish than Bullish so this is a good sign because You don't want to be at 70 or a Max Greed when you're looking to see a Breakout you get breakouts when you're At 50 or below on these charts here so Very important to of course you know Make sure you're checking your daily Fear and greed Index this is fom mod.io If you guys haven't checked this out and Of course it's got access to all of your Favorite altcoins uh that use different Volume metrics and everything so while
Bitcoin is at a 46 feere you can of Course see that maybe ethereum or your Favorite altcoins might more oversold Than Bitcoin itself you can see ethereum Here a little bit more greedy a little Bit more greedy of course on ethereum Here uh so might mean that Bitcoin has a Little bit more dominance and a bigger Breakout coming before altcoins do as Well uh we have looking of course at our Bitcoin liquidations here and let me get Some super chat questions here do you Think Duke will hit 20 million is boring Uh it's very possible if memecoins Bounce back uh we have built more than Anything and it soon will be completely Completely driven by the community um We're going to have our raid tonight at 6:30 p.m. talk about some announcements And what we're building what we're Developing but really it's uh it's a Meme coin dukez it's a meme coin so once Meme coin season comes back that is what You're gonna be looking for you're gonna Be looking for an outbreak of course in Pepe and all those tokens as well Thoughts on H bar already read that one For you guys but we got duck Manning Coming in where do you think Ono price Will be at if Bitcoin is 90 to $100,000 uh if Bitcoin goes to $100,000 90 to $100,000 I think Anda will be at Like two and a half $3 I think it's very Possible for a breakout to the upside uh
Of that would be that'd be amazing That'd be very that'd be very freaking Amazing here a lot of imbalance in my Portfolio eyes like a hawk on the one Minutes oh my gosh bro watching the one Minute chart pow can mess up any Market Even a day after the Dow moves 10,00 Points yes he can he's he's got a lot of Power out there a lot of power out there Uh rate Cuts coming it's going to Boom We hope so but you know again Historically Ray Cuts don't necessarily Mean it has to Boom here on the seven Day we are more bullish now than bearish Guys this is what we were looking for so We have seen that support as I showed You guys yesterday on our live stream we Have seen more support uh starting to Drive and accumulate around the $66,500 Level uh so this is looking more bullish Than bearish on these markets currently But I mean on the 30-day 30-day is Bearish 30-day is bearish so it's not Out of the cards I would say it's a 7030 Chance we go higher uh but at the same Time again that is a pretty big chance That we can see that continuation lower And see a lot of the that imbalance on These of course the Futures Gap filled There for you guys coming from cou Coming from cush here very interesting Here Global money supply monthly two Things that amused me greatly one you Could do Ta on global money and two
People think the large entities Acquiring Bitcoin now are doing so Because of an impeding ETF uh honestly That's quite interesting that he's Pointing this out here but the global Money supply is looking to break out Which is bullish for these markets very Very very bullish for Bitcoin and Everything now he's looking on a monthly Time scale so it's not like this happens At the snap of the finger overnight uh But it is bullish more bullish than Beish here uh Josh where can I swap my Ethon base to ethereum uh very simple I Believe you can just simply use Houdini Swap right here so uh if you're looking To swap your eth to know ethereum from Eth base so you can just type in eth Base here uh let's go to eth base chain Uh Houdini swap here Link in the Description uh super simple so you just Take your ethereum on base you send it To your ethereum main net and you just Send in the wallet you want to receive It at but make sure of course you have The right ethereum addresses in there Very simple to do so uh you can use this For like literally anything you can Switch from Soul to ethon base you can Switch from uh xrp to soul you can do Whatever you want trade whatever you Want and they are directly partnered With Duke as well so if you have some Extra you know a little bit amount of
Sol or whatever it is this is where you Can pick up of course Duke on Houdini Swap guys make sure you guys go check That out link should be in the Description below uh if not we'll make Sure we add it for you or you can find It on my Twitter uh just go to Houdini Swap for you right there to switch your Guys's crypto if you want some kind of Safe trade Robin Hood stock uh I don't Trade Robin Hood stock but going down Now we're crashing are we crashing we're At 66,000 we 66,9 right now it's actually pumping Right now my my oh that's uh sorry I'm Looking at the Futures Futures are Probably dropping right here uh $66,900 Here let me go ahead and control Z ZZ Then get those back up for us boom there We go was great seeing you at the Bitcoin conference yo blockchain Bella How you doing good to see you it was Awesome mean get it was a fun conference Really cool to see everybody there uh All right guys we are less than two Minutes away two minutes Away Federal Reserve out And we got not the greatest music coming Out of Rome prepare yourself guys prepare Yourself to watch markets go absolutely Insane absolutely insane turn that down
They're getting they're getting hyped up Here they're getting hyped up here what Do you think of lizo I am not a fan of Lizo I think she is way overweight um no I'm just kidding he said Lio my bro said Lio here so as we uh you know Li I have Too many thoughts on I haven't done a Research into it too much for you to Give you guys an apparent thought on it But we have Bitcoin weekly T up and Handle targets of $120,600 To $127,400 Mega Bulls here Mega Bulls here Also very potential you know very Possible we just trade sideways all the Way through of course our us election Here audio sounds weird pretty good give Me a one in chat if for good give me a One in chat if we good me a one in chat If the audio is there uh David saaks Here well lots of crazy news coming out Here today uh even Joe Rogan talk about Joe Biden's height on his podcast uh a Lot of really cool stuff happening out In just a real word guys remember you Need to go touch grass before you touch Some grass though Economist Paul Krugman Uh says Bitcoin remains economically Useless this is the same guy this is why You know I just laugh people go what's Your what's your uh college background Did you go to school and then there's This guy here who's a Nobel prizewinning Economist who uh said by 2005 or so it
Will become clear that the internet's Impact on the economy has been no Greater than fax machines so you can win A Nobel Prize and be a complete Idiot uh that is the the proof here now He's smarting his own ways he has a Nobel Prize but damn you know don't ever Look at somebody go you need college Experience to uh you know be smart it's Not how this works here we go guys Jerome Powell my colleagues and I remain Squarely focused on achieving our dual Mandate goals of Maximum employment and Stable prices for the benefit of the American people our economy has made Considerable progress toward both goals Over the past two years the labor market Has come into better balance and the Unemployment rate remains low inflation Has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to 2.5% we are strongly committed to Returning inflation to our 2% goal in Support of a strong economy that Benefits Everyone today the fomc decided to leave Our policy interest rate unchanged and To continue to reduce our Securities Holdings we are maintaining our Restrictive stance of monetary policy in Order to keep demand in line with Supply And reduce inflationary Pressures we are attentive to risks on Both sides of our dual mandate and I
Will have more to say about monetary Policy after briefly reviewing economic Developments recent indicators suggest That economic activity has continued to Expand at a solid Pace GDP growth Moderated to 2.1% in the first half of The Year down from 3.1% last Year private domestic final purchases or PDF P which excludes inventory Investment government spending and net Exports and usually sends a clearer Signal of underlying demand grew at a 2.6% pace over that same period the First half growth of consumer spending Has slowed from last year's robust Pace But remains solid investment in Equipment and intangibles has picked up From its anemic Pace last year in the Housing sector investment stalled in the Second quarter after a strong rise in The first improving Supply Supply Conditions have supported resilient Demand and the strong performance of the US economy over the past Year in the labor market supply and Demand conditions have come into better Balance payroll job gains averaged 177,000 jobs per month in the second Quarter a solid Pace but below that seen In the first Quarter the unemployment rate has moved Up but remains low at 4.1% strong job creation over the past Couple of years has been accompanied by
An increase in the supply of workers Reflecting increases in participation Among individual individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a strong pace of Immigration nominal wage growth has Eased over the past year and the jobs to Workers Gap has Narrowed overall a broad set of Indicators suggests that conditions in The labor market have returned to about Where they stood on the eve of the Pandemic strong but not Overheated inflation has eased notably Over the past 2 years but remains Somewhat above our longer run goal of 2% total pcee Prices rose 2.5% over the 12 months ending in June excluding the Volatile food and energy categories core Pce prices Rose 2.6% longer term inflation expectations Appear to remain well anchored as Reflected in a broad range of surveys of Households and businesses and Forecasters as well as measures from Financial Markets my colleagues and I are acutely Aware that high inflation imposes Significant hardship as it erodes Purchasing power especially for those Least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food housing and Transportation our monetary policy Actions are Guided by our dual mandate To promote maximum employment and stable
Prices for the American people in Support of these goals the committee Decided at today's meeting to maintain The target range for the federal funds Rate at 5 and a quar to 5 a half% and to Continue reducing our Securities Holdings as the labor market has cooled And inflation has declined the risks to Achieving our employment and inflation Goals continue to move into better Balance indeed we're attentive to the Risks to both sides of our dual Mandate we have stated that we do not Expect it will be appropriate to reduce The target range for the federal funds Rate until we have gained greater Confidence that inflation is moving Sustainably toward 2% the second quarter's inflation added To our scared more good data would Further strengthen that Confidence we will continue to make our Decisions meeting by meeting we know That reducing policy restraint too soon Or too much could result in a reversal Of the progress we have seen on Inflation at the same time reducing Policy restraint too late or too little Could unduly weaken economic activity And employment In considering any adjustments to the Target range for the federal funds rate The committee will carefully assess Incoming data the evolving Outlook and
The balance of Risks as the economy evolves monetary Policy will adjust in order to best Promote our maximum employment and price Stability goals if the economy remains Solid and inflation persists we can Maintain the T current target range for The federal funds rate as long as Appropriate if the labor market were to Weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to Fall more quickly than anticipated we Are prepared to respond policy is well Positioned to deal with the risks and Uncertainties that we face in pursuing Both sides of our dual Mandate the FED has been assigned two Goals for monetary policy maximum Employment and stable prices we remain Committed to Bringing inflation back Down to our 2% goal and to keeping Longer term inflation expectations well Anchored restoring price stability is Essential to achieving maximum Employment and stable prices over the Longer Run our success in delivering on these Goals matters to all Americans throwing Up we understand that our actions affect Communities families and businesses Across the country everything we do is In service to our public Mission we at The FED will do everything we can to Achieve our maximum employment and price Stability goals thank you I look forward
To your questions oh God did you change your mind huh did you Change your mind uh Gina SM new Yorktimes for taking our questions Markets pretty much entirely expect a Rate cut in September at this stage um I Wonder if you think that's a reasonable Expectation and if so why not just make The move Today thank you so um on September let Me say this we we have made no decisions About future meetings and that includes A September meeting the broad sense of The committee is that the economy is Moving closer to the point at which it Will be approv apprpriate to reduce our Policy rate uh in that we will be data Dependent but not data point dependent So it will not be a question of Responding specifically to one or two Data releases the question will be Whether the totality of the data the Evolving Outlook in the balance of risks Are consistent with Rising confidence on Inflation and maintaining a solid labor Market if that test is met a reduction In our policy rate could be on the table As soon as the next meeting in September So you asked why not today uh and I Would just say again that the broad Sense of the committee is that we're Getting closer to the point at which It'll be appropriate to reduce our Policy rate but that we're not quite at
That point Yet Howard so uh just to to follow up on That a bit if inflation behaves as you Expect between now in September would You regard a cut in September as sort of The Baseline scenario right now so I Guess I would I would think about it This way um I'll give an example of uh Of cases in which it would be Appropriate to cut and maybe that it Wouldn't be appropriate to cut so if we Were to see um for example inflation Moving down uh quickly or more or less In line with expectations growth remains Let's say uh reasonably strong uh and And the labor market remains you know Consistent with its current condition Then I I would think that that a a rate Cut could be on the table at the September meeting uh if if inflation Were to prove you know stickier and we Were to see higher readings from Inflation disappointing readings we Would weigh that along with the other Things you know I think it's going to be Not just any one thing it's going to be The inflation data it's going to be the The uh uh employment data it's going to Be the balance of risks as we see it It's going to be the totality of all of That that help us make this decision and Just to follow up on that specifically In what ways right now given all you've
Seen over the Last shelter Etc in what ways are you Not confident right now that inflation Is on the way back to 2% I I think it's Just a question of seeing more good data We have seen the last couple of readings Have have certainly added to confidence And we've seen progress across all three Categories of of core pce inflation That's Goods non-housing services and Housing Services so it's really just um You know we had a quarter of of poor Inflation data at the beginning of the Year then we saw some more good Inflation data we had seven months at The end of last year you know we we just Want to see more and and gain confidence And as I said we have we have we did Gain confidence and more good data would Cause us to to gain more Confidence Colby thank you Kobe Smith with the Financial times the March SCP pointed to Three Cuts in 2024 with core inflation At 2.6% and the unemployment rate at 4 % Since we're now at that level in terms Of inflation and already beyond what was Projected for the labor market I'm just Wondering if that rate path is back to Being BST for policy rather than let's Say the shallower one laid out in the June SCP you know so I would just say um Really the path ahead is going to depend
On the way the economy uh evolves and I I can't really give you any any better Forward guidance on it than that we we Didn't of course do an SCP at this Meeting we will do another one at the September meeting uh I would just say I Can I can imagine a scenario in which There would be everywhere from zero cuts To several Cuts depending on the way the Economy evolves and I wouldn't want to a Baseline path for you today uh I've said What I what I can say about September And about about today Though pump pump guys spam pump in the Chat if you want said before that you Would until inflation got to 2% to cut Rates because of how inflation is La Does that apply for La La Market uh is back in equilibrium Why is restrictive policy and Potentially very restrictive policy Given the High real funds rate warranted Right Now so this this is the very reason that We're thinking about about um you know That we've said in our in our statement That we're going back to looking at both Mandates and that we think the risks are Coming back into balance we think what The data broadly show in the labor Market is an ongoing gradual Normalization of labor market conditions And that's what we want to see you know We've seen that over a period of a
Couple of years and a move really from Overheated conditions to more normal Conditions we are watching the labor Labor market conditions quite closely And that's what we're seeing if we if we Start to see something that looks to be More than that then we're well Positioned to respond that's that's part Of what we're thinking and when you talk About uh seeing something that's more Than whatever softness or slowdown you Expect uh in the past you've said that Stronger growth uh wouldn't wouldn't Override better news on inflation I Wonder how that cuts the other way if You're seeing more softness in the labor Market than what you would expect does That uh change the calculus on what You're looking for out of the inflation Numbers to uh recalibrate policy so we We have growth isn't one of our three we Have two mandates as you know uh the Labor market maximum employment is one And stable prices is another so we weigh We you know we weigh those two things Equally under the law when we were far Away from our inflation mandate we had To focus on that now we're back back to A closer to even focus so we'll be Looking at the at labor market Conditions and asking whether we're Getting what we're seeing and as I said We're prepared to respond if we see it That it's that it's not what we wanted
See which was you know a gradual Normalization of conditions if we see More than that and it wouldn't be any One statistic although of course the the Unemployment rate is generally thought To be you know a single a good single Statistic but we'd be looking at wages We'd be looking at participation we' Looking at all the things surveys quits Uh hires all of those things to Determine the overall status of the Labor market but we're looking at at it Now I would say again I think you're Back to conditions that are close to 2019 Conditions and that was not an Inflationary economy broadly similar Labor markets then I think inflation was Actually core inflation is actually Running below 2% so we don't think I Don't now think of the labor market in Its current state as a likely source of Significant inflationary pressures so I Would I I would not like to see material Further Cooling in the labor market and That's part of what's behind our Thinking the other part of course is That we have made real progress on Inflation and we're we're we've got Growing confidence there that we are not Quite there yet but we we're get more Confident that we're on a that we're on A sustainable path down to 2% so those Things two things are working together
And we're we're factoring those both Into our Policy Chris uh Chris rugaber at Associated Press um you mentioned not wanting to See any further Cooling in the job Market um why not or would you consider Preemptive cuts to prevent Uh if you saw risks of an unexpected Cooling is that something you would cut Ahead of time for so I I wouldn't say I Wouldn't want to see any other cooling It would be more of material difference If we we'd be looking at this and if we See something that looks like a more Significant downturn that that's that Would be something that we would we you Know we would have the uh intention of Responding to Um so in terms of uh I I don't think of It that way I think of it as you know We're we're actually in good place here We're balancing these two risks of you Know go too soon and you undermine Progress on on inflation wait too long Or or or don't go fast enough and and You put at risk the recovery and so we Have to balance those two things that's The nature of having two mandates and I Think we this is how we balance them It's a rough balance but you know it Does feel like that again the labor Market feels like it's in a place where It's it's just a process of ongoing
Normalization 4.1% unemployment is still Historically low um and you know we'll Just have to see what the data show us And just to follow quickly uh wanted to See what you thought of the recent jolts Report which did show hiring gross Hiring has come down even below 2019 Levels uh layoffs remain low so it Painted a picture of a very static labor Market uh is that sustainable in your View or something that is worrying thank You so I think all of the data points Continue to point to kind of the Direction we would want to see so that Was taken as as you there was a decline In job openings uh that was good today's Uh ECI reading was a little softer than Expected so that's that's a good reading It it shows that wage increases are Still at a strong level but that that Level continues to come down to more Sustainable levels over time that's Exactly the pattern that we want to be Seeing so I think the data they were We've been seeing in the labor market Are broadly consistent with that Normalization process again we we're Closely monitoring to see whether it Starts to show signs that it's more than That Steve Steve Mr chairman um back in March You talked about cutting rates as a Process and in June you talked about the Idea that well one rate cut wouldn't do
Anything so I wonder if you can um sort Of follow on Kobe's question uh talk About are you weighing the economy right Now in terms of its ability to withstand Multiple rate Cuts talk us through the Process that you're thinking or is it Just one rate cut are you in the process Now thinking that rates need to be Normalized here thank You yeah I can't really say that Honestly you know we're we um we've seen You know significant movement in the Labor market and you know we're very Mindful of this question of of is it Just normalization or is it more we Think it's just more normalization but We want to be in a position to to Support the labor market at the same Time we're seeing progress on inflation So you know we we actually got to this We raised rates uh a year ago at the July meeting and if you look at the Situation in the economy a year ago um Unemployment sorry inflation was over Was over 4% it was a completely Different economy now we've made a lot Of progress and the labor market as I Think you know unemployment was in the Threes mid threes so it's a different Economy and I think it's time it's Coming to be time to adjust that so that We support this continued process the Thing we're trying to do is you know That we have um we had we've had this
Really significant decline in inflation And unemployment has remained low and This is a really unusual and Historically uh historically unusual and Such a welcome outcome for the people we Serve what we're thinking about all the Time is how do we keep this going and This is this is part of that we we think We we don't need to be 100% % focused on Inflation because of the progress we've Made uh 12-month headline at 2 and a Half core 2.6 you know it's way down From where it was the job is not done on Inflation but nonetheless we can afford To begin to dial back the Restriction in Our policy rate and I think we're just As part of a process in terms of of what That looks like I mean I think most rate You know you would you would think in a Base case that policy rates would move Down from here but I I don't want to try To give specific uh You know forward Guidance at which it might happen Because I think that's really going to Depend on the economy and that's highly Uncertain Rachel hi chair po Rachel seagull from The Washington Post thanks for taking Our questions on inflation do the past Few months of good Reports look like What we saw last year where you really Had a lot of momentum with a few bumps In between would you characterize that
Kind of momentum as back on track at This point in the year actually what We're seeing now is a little better than What we saw last year last year as we Pointed out late in the year a whole lot Of the progress we saw last year was From Goods prices which were going down At an unsustainable rate disinf lating At at an unsustainable rate this is a Broader disinflation this has Goods Prices coming down but it's also we're Also now seeing progress in the other Two big categories non-housing services And housing services so you know so the Thing is we've only you've got one Quarter of that we had seven months of Of low inflation you got one quarter of This I would say the quality of this is Is higher and it's good but it's but so Far it's only a quarter so I I think um You know we need to see more to know That we're you know that to have more Confidence that we're on on a good path Down to 2% but as I mentioned our Confidence is growing because we we've Been getting good data and are you Bullish Report softening in the labor market uh Conditions uh you know give you more Confidence that the econom is not Overheating it doesn't look like an Overheating economy And U it looks like an economy that's Normalizing and if we were think about
The first couple of months of the year Is there any sense now that they were These blips that could have actually Allowed for earlier rate Cuts as were Some of the projections going into 2024 The thing about if if that's if what it Is is seasonality and it could just be Very very hard to you know to to do Appropriate seasonal adjustments if That's what it is then that actually Implies that that other months were Under reporting too low inflation if you Smooth it out it's a zero sum game and That's why we look at 12 months we look At 12 months because that that takes all That out all those effects out 12 month Now is 2 and a half% headline 2.6% core This is so much better than where we Were even a year ago it's a lot better Now the job is not done I want to stress That and we're committed to getting job Inflation sustainably down to 2% but we Need to take note of that progress and We need to weigh the risks to the labor Market and the risks to our inflation Target now more equally than we did a Year Ago Michael Mck Michael mcke from Bloomberg radio And television I'd like to ask you about The balance of risks as the American People see it at this point is the risk Greater to leave interest rates where They are given the damage that higher
Interest rates do to the economy in Slowing demand and raising prices uh or Is it more important for the American People that you keep rates where they Are to bring infl down guys make sure You hit that like button I I you know I Think that we've been given an Assignment by Congress this is how we Serve the American people is by Achieving maximum employment and price Stability right and so in our you know Quasi constitutional document that St on Longer run goals and monetary policy Strategy we look at the two goals and if One of them is farther away than the Other the the two variables inflation And employment if one is farther away From its goal than the other then you Con you concentrate on the one that's Farther away and you take account of the Time to reach the goal so for the for The last couple of years the best Service we could do to the American People was to focus on inflation but as Inflation has come down and I think the The upside risks to inflation have Decreased as the labor market has cooled Off um now and now um and labor market Is softened you know probably the the Inflation inflation is probably a little Farther from its Target than is the Employment but I think the downside Risks to to the to to the employment Mandate are are real now so we have to
Weigh all that and if you think about Where that takes us is we have a Restrictive policy rate it's clearly Restrictive it's been the rate we've had In place for a full year and it and the Time is coming as other central banks Around the world are facing the same Question the time is coming at which it Will begin to be appropriate to dial Back that level of restrictions Restrictions so that we may address both Mandates well you have uh event risk Basically with the jobs report on Friday And another one before you meet again uh Are you certain that you won't fall Behind the curve and lead to unnecessary Unemployment uh if you wait until September certainty is not a word that We have in our in our business um so you Know we get we get a lot of data between Now and September and it isn't going to Be one data read or even two it's going To be the totality of the data all of The data and not just and and then how's That affecting the Outlook and how's it Affecting the balance of risks that's Going to be the assessment that we do of Course we'll we'll all look carefully at The employment report but so much other Data coming in and so much happening Between now and and the September Meeting and we'll you know we'll make a Judgment Ed uh thank you Mr chairman Edward
Lawrence The Fox Business I do want to Dig deeper on what Michael and and what Nick were asking um there's a a shift in The statement to balance between the Focus between inflation and jobs looking At the job sides we've seen wage data Show sort of an Abrupt slowing we've uh We're hearing on earnings calls from Companies like Intel abrupt layoffs in The jobs report from the BLS government Jobs has been a leading Creator could The government jobs as a sector hiring Mask underlying weakness in the jobs Report well you know we'll look at Everything um we've seen some some uh Tendency to have a narrowing base of job Creation in some months going back but Then we've had some months where where Job creation was broader and and also That you know the headline number of Jobs has come down so uh you know we Would but you you look at the whole Thing and and uh I think you do look at Private demand uh extra carefully to Your point about about government so We'll just be looking at at all those Things so as a follow then uh so could The FED then be behind the curve because You said some of the reports last Meeting you said the reports could be Noisy or overstated um was there a Discussion of of what kind of discussion Was there for a cut today and could the FED be behind the curve yeah so
Um I can't wait for the FED minutes the Objective is to balance the two risks Right it's the risk of going too soon And the risk of going too late we've Been you know we we uh we had seven Months of good inflation data at the end Of last year we said we wanted to see More we said we pointed out that too Much of this was coming from goods and Sure enough the first quarter wasn't Wasn't great inflation did and now we've Got another quarter a quarter that is Good and you know we're balancing the Risk of going too soon against the risk Of going too late that's what we're Doing there's no guarantee in this it's A very difficult judgment call but this Is this is how we're making it um so but In terms of today your question about Today um we did have a um you know we Had uh you know a nice a nice Conversation about about this issue Today the overall sense of the committee As I mentioned is that we're getting Closer to the point at which it'll be Appropriate to begin to dial back Restriction but we're not quite at that Point yet we want to see more good data Uh the decision was unanimous all I Think he wants to see more good data um And but you know there was a real Discussion back and forth uh of what the Case would be for for moving at this Meeting uh you know a strong majority
Supported moving not moving at this Meeting that was the strong sense of the Committee but it's a conversation that We had today Certainly Courtney Courtney Brown from axio thank You for taking our questions um when the Fed was raising rates there was a lot of Conversation about long and variable Lags I wonder if that applies on the way Down to how are you in the committee Thinking about that yes it does and I And I think the lags have kind of showed Up here in the last six months by the Way you you really do now see the Restriction where whereas I mean even a Few months ago people were questioning How restrictive policy was look at the Labor market now you can see and look at It look at inflation sorry rate Sensitive um interest sensitive spending You really do see now that policy is Restrictive I wouldn't say it's Extremely restrictive but it's certainly Effectively restrictive yes there there The lag should should be this should be On the way down it should take some time To get into to get into the full economy Affect financial conditions and that Affects economic activity h and that Kind of thing in Ultimate inflation Doesn't it's not instantaneous although It's faster than it used to be because Markets move now in anticipation of our
Moves so are you worried then that if Monetary policy acts with long and Variable lags even when you're lowering Interest rates it might be too late for The FED to help save off any kind of Slowdown the labor market or broader Economy we have to worry about that I Mean we you're just to make it clear you Know it's it's a very difficult Challenging Judgment uh and we didn't want to go too Soon we don't and we want to don't want To go too late and but that's this is How we've made that judgment I feel good About where we are we're certainly very Well positioned to respond to weakness With the policy rate at 5.3% we Certainly have a lot of room to respond If we were to see weakness that's not What we're seeing though what we're Seeing look at the look at the first Half growth numbers look at pdfp at 2.6% For the first half it's not signaling a Weak economy it's also not seek Signaling an overheating economy um Labor market admittedly the the Unemployment rate has moved up 7/10 and We're seeing you know we're seeing Normalization there but um you know wage Wage increases are still at a high level Unemployment is still at a low level Layoffs are very low uh initial claims Have moved up but they're pretty stable And and they're historically not high at
All so the the total scope of the data Suggest a normalizing labor market uh And again we are carefully watching to To see that that that continues to be The Case Victoria hi Victoria Guido with Politico Um on the labor market I was wondering How worried are you all about Unemployment rising to the point where It triggers the S Rule and would that Potentially affect how quickly you cut Rates we Um so I would just say the question Really is is one of Are We worried about A sharper downturn the labor market so And the answer is we're watching really Carefully for that we're we're aware of That rule which is really a you know a a I would call it a statistical uh a Statistical thing that has happened uh Through history um a statistical Regularity is what I'd call it uh it's Not like an economic rule where it's Telling you something must happen so Again what do we see what are our eyes Telling us we look at we look at all the Things we're seeing and what it looks Like is a normalizing labor market again Job creation at a pretty decent level Wages moving up at at a strong level but Coming down gradually uh job vacancies Have come down but they're still high by Historical standards so again I've been
Through some of the data already but What we think we're seeing is is uh a Normalizing labor market uh and we're Watching carefully to see if it's if it Turns out to be more it starts to show Signs that it's more than that then We're we're well positioned respond is There reason to think that the labor Market might behave differently this Time than it has historically I I think You Know history doesn't repeat itself it it Rhymes I think that statement is very True about the Economy just the same and example would Be a trend increase in the level of Vacancies there are many many examples So it's never exactly the same also Let's remember that this pandemic era Has been one in which so many you know Apparent rules have been flouted like The uh inverted yield curve for Starters um so many many received W Pieces of received wisdom just haven't Worked and it's because this the Situation really is unusual or unique in That so much of this inflation came from The shutdown in the economy and the Resulting Supply uh problems in the face Of admittedly very strong demand so the Whole the whole situation is is not the Same as many of the other prior Inflation out uh or downturns that we've Seen or business cycles that we've seen
So we're having to learn you know we're Having to um you know to be very careful About the judgments that we make I would Say so we don't assume that that these Regularities will will just repeat Themselves Automatically thank you chair P Mo with Blomberg question seem to be quite a Difference between what the anecdotal Data are telling us such as the very Recent uh downbeat pige book and the Hard data do you take those anecdotes Seriously that is that the economy and Labor market are cooling much more Rapidly than what's shown in the Data so I do take that seriously and it The beige book is great what's even Greater is hearing the uh Reserve Bank Presidents come in and talk about their Conversations with um with businesses And Business Leaders and workers and People in unprivate sector in their Districts but it's I'll tell you it's a Pretty you know this the picture is Is not one of a slowing or you know a Really bad economy it's one of there There spots of weakness and their Regions where growth is stronger than Other regions but overall it's you know Again look look at the aggregate data Aggregate data is you know particularly Pdfp private private domestic final Purchases is 2.6% and that's a good Indicator of private uh private demand
So we listen to all that and it does it Does Um I think it's important to listen to Anecdotal data and not just look at the Aggregate data especially uh you know It's very hard GDP data can be volatile Quarter to quarter uh so it's just hard To measure economic activity there are a Lot of it's just difficult to do so I I Look at both but I wouldn't say that the UN that that the anecdotal data is Uniformly downbeat it's more Mixed thank You jool link count with CBS News Cher Pal thanks for taking our questions Today you have consistently said that The FED does not consider politics and Making decisions with a possible September rate cut on the table it would Be less than two months before the Election and former president Trump Reportedly said that cutting rates so Close to the election is something the Central Bank knows they shouldn't be Doing what's your response and do you Believe it's possible to really remain a Political with a September rate Cut I absolutely do and I think it's First of all we haven't made any Decision I I would say it this way haven't made Any decision about any future meeting I Don't know what the data will reveal or How that will affect the appropriate
Path of our policy I really don't know I Do know how we will make that assessment That's what I do know so if you take a Step back the current situation again is Inflation has come down much closer to Our goal and that's happened while Unemployment is remain low we're we're Very tightly focused on using our tools To try to Foster that state of Affairs Continuing that's at each of our Meetings and all of our decisions our Focus is strictly on that and really on Nothing else doing our part whatever That part may be um you know we're we're Using our best thinking we're doing our Best to uh understand the economy we we Follow academics we follow the many Commentators who bless us with their Commentary um but we don't change Anything in our approach to address Other factors like the political Calendar Congress has We Believe ordered Us to conduct our business in a Non-political way at all times not just Some of the time I'll say this too we Never use our tools to support or oppose A political party a politician or any Political Outcome the bottom line is if we do our Very best to do our part and we stick to Our part that will benefit all Americans If we get it right the economy will be Stronger we'll have price stability People will find jobs wages rise in real
Terms everyone will benefit so that's What we believe and that's how we will Always act this is my fourth Presidential election at the FED I can Tell you this is how we think about it This is what we do so it's it anything That we do before during or after the Election will will be based on the data The Outlook and the balance of risks and Not on anything else just a quick Followup um do your economic forecasts And models take into account the two Very different economic plans of these Two presidential candidates Harris and Trump and if so how no we do not do that We absolutely do not do that we don't we Don't know who's going to win we don't Know what they're going to do we don't Act as though we know and we just can't Do that you know we we basically we have Our forecast we're not we we can run Simil simulations of different potential Policies but we would never try to make Policy decisions based on the outcome of An election that hasn't happened yet we Would just that would just be a line we Would never cross you know we're a Non-political agency we don't we don't Want to be involved in any in politics In in any way so we wouldn't do That Nicholas thank you chair pow Nicholas Trinsky from Baron's magazine um there Hasn't been a dissenting vote on an
Interest rate decision in some time if The data do evolve as you expect if you Do have more confidence by the September Meeting do you get the sense that there Will be a us vote on an interest rate Move um in September basically are there Meaningful differences in uh committee Members assessments of how much more Confidence is needed so there's all There are always um meaningful Differences there are and and you know We we talk a lot before during and after The meeting we do have a very robust Discussion of these things you're right That in in most cases um people if they Feel heard and they feel that they've That they're You know their position has been given Serious consideration for most people Most of the time that's going to be Enough there are descents that's fine You know no one has a veto you you know No single person has a veto so it just Is a question of who will vote wild We've had we've had Um you know Descents at the same right now we Haven't had so many during the pandemic Era and it just may be that you know We've we felt more united because we Felt you know under a lot of pressure to Get things right but before the pandemic We had plenty of descents and I you know Descents happen it's part of the process
There's nothing wrong with the sense and Uh if it happens it Happens Jean we're going to zero we're Going to zero guys hello Jean young with M& market news um is a 50 basis point Cut as a first cut at all likely or even On the table thank you you know I don't Want to say and would be really specific About what we're going to do but that's That's not what that's not something We're thinking about right Now Jennifer of course I haven't made Any decisions at all as of Today thank you chair Bell Jennifer Shan Berger with yaho Finance not to get Ahead of the minutes but you said there Was a real discussion today for moving At this meeting I'm curious if you could Provide some more color on the nature of The discussion today at the meeting About a possible rate cut as early as September Well So you know the way the meeting is set Up um the first day there's a discussion Of financial stability because it's Every other meeting we have that and Then we have an opportunity to comment On that then we have an economic go Around and then this morning we have the Monetary policy go around and I think in People's economic go around and in their Monetary policy go around people Express Their views uh about this and and you
Know there's a range of views people as You will know from the speeches that They give people have different ways of Thinking about the economy and so um in The minutes we we'll lay this out in Much a much better way than I can do off The cuff but there there's a range of Perspectives and you know but I do think That you know we are you know we're Consensus-driven organization people Come together this was a unanimous a Unanimous decision and at the end Everyone and everyone supported the Outcome in not just the voters but Everyone so I I you know would also say Some people examine the possibility you Know the the case for moving at this Meeting um but overwhelmingly the sense Of the committee was not at this meeting But as soon as the next meeting Depending on how the data come in but There is a growing sense of confidence That you could move at the next meeting Assuming inflation comes well assuming That the totality of the data support Such an outcome no no question that that That's that is the case that um as as I Mentioned Um uh you got look for the right answer We we we think that the time is is is It's it's approaching and if we do get The data that we that we hope we get Then um you know a reduction in our Policy rate could be on the table at the
September Meeting hi chair pal Nancy Marshall Gender with Marketplace um former New York President Bill In Bloomberg earlier this month which You probably saw in which he said quote It might already be too late to fend off A recession by cutting rates dawling now Unnecessarily increases the risk is he Wrong so this is the Judgment that we Have to make and we're we're well aware Of the Judgment we're you know we're as I as I've said we have to weigh the risk Of going too soon against the risk of Going too late if we go too soon we can You know we had a lot of advice you know To go ahead And E E E E E E E e Sorry unemployment is is low you know The data overall show a strong labor Market um and guys we got rugged you Know so that's that's really what you See it's it's not it's neither an Overheating economy nor is it a sharply Weakening weakening economy it's it's Kind of what you would want to see but Of
Course for
