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[Music] [Applause] Dam it my Bitcoin price prediction for The end of 2024 first and foremost there Are three major events that need to take Place for us to see over a $100,000 Bitcoin so can we get there What's my prediction but first here is What a billionaire believes is going to Happen to the price of Bitcoin I guess The easiest way to get a clear view of Where Bitcoin is going over the next 5 Years is take a look at the last five Right the last five Bitcoin has been an Outsider in the finance business but Coming closer and closer and closer Right now there's an ETF just starting to go a little bit Mainstream maybe a toe in the water of Mainstream but Banks still can't clear It Banks still can't transact in it Banks still can't custodian it Banks Still won't transact in it and they Won't Finance it yet I think people Misunderstand traditional financial Service companies they want to transact In Bitcoin they want new asset classes To transact in that's just a good thing But they need the regulator to say it's Okay right now today right if a bank Were to hold your Bitcoin they would Have to set aside their own own money Equal to that amount in in sort of like In the jail I mean you'd say so well
That's crazy the answer is that's why They don't hold it but if you let them Hold it if the regulatory environment Was good you will see all the Traditional financial service companies The big Banks the big brokerage Companies they're all going to go head First into Bitcoin pond that's what's going to Happen and it's coming it's a slow most Steady process but eventually there's Going to be a cftc chair who says you Know what Bitcoin is a financial asset And we're going to treat it as such and When that happens you're going to see Bitcoin move in a very very strong Positive direction so that's why I'm a Fan of Bitcoin it's going to go much Higher it always bounces around like any Other financial asset But ultimately Over the next five years as it gets in Into this Party up we go and up we go with reason Number one which of course I told you Guys was going to be the elections Coming up this November because Regulations matter you heard it from Himself a multi billion hedge fund Coming out and saying we need proper Regulation and there is only one Candidate that is going to give us a Commissioner that is very Pro Bitcoin Specifically from the cftc the SEC and And so on they are decided to be put
Into those seats those seats aren't Elected officials the the the voter me You everybody watching we're not the Ones that get to decide whether the SEC Is going to choose Gary Gensler or not It is the executive branch so we need Officials that have strong regulatory Approaches towards Bitcoin that are Positive rather than negative to see an Onslaught of banking Giants enter this Market now that means one of two things Okay that means either a we get a pro Bitcoin canidate is going to strive for Pro crypto legislation or it means we're Going to get a crypto candidate that Delays that regulation that positive Aggression that positive legislation and Approach for a roughly four more years So that is reason number one now the Second reason why Bitcoin is struggling And ranging between 60,000 and really $55,000 is almost 7 million addresses Purchased Bitcoin between $61,200 and $70,000 500 bucks currently trading at a price Of 56,7 every Trader who acquired the Asset at this range is currently at a Loss for Bitcoin to absorb the selling Pressure for Bitcoin to break out out of This downward trend of that $70,000 level we are going to need to Not only break the trend to jump to new Highs but the cryptocurrency needs Significant momentum so of course
Positive crypto legislation and a Positive Bitcoin presidency or Senate Chairs for example Johnny Deon who might End up beating Elizabeth Orin these are Positive momentum narratives that are Starting to be created today they're Starting to be drafted but there is one Thing there's actually two things that We're going to talk about in today's Episode but there is one thing that is Perhaps the most important moment in Bitcoin's history and that is going to Be the Federal Reserves decision on Whether or not they are going to cut Interest rates you see historically September is the most bearish month for Bitcoin with an average decline of 5% Coin began this month in the red falling From $60,000 to $55,000 and data from Coin market cap shows the asset has Slumped 5% in just the last seven days Here's what that chart looks like for You highlighted in the red you can see That September is historically one of The worst months and actually the worst Month for bitcoin's Price action Followed by a very bullish October very Bullish November and a very bullish December 22% on average in October 46% On average in November in 5% on average In December so if the Federal Reserve Does decide to cut interest rates what Does that mean for bitcoin's Price are We going to be stuck at 55k are we going
To be stuck around 65k or can we even Break out and hit new all-time highs by The end of this year well the answer may Be able to be found over on X you have Zero Ika here a Bitcoin technical Analyst pointing out that there is Diminishing returns in these markets so If we're looking historically you need To know what this means because Previously in 2014 2015 the bare Market Dropped by 86% in bitcoin's price 2018 To 2019 we saw an 84% drop 2020 to 2023 Sorry 2022 to 20123 down 77% but the first having cycle in 2012 Not the bare Market but the Bull Run Bitcoin jumped by 570,000 per. the Second having cycle in 2016 11,500 per. the third having in 2020 2,000% on bitcoin so this very clearly a Crystal clear desp depiction that Massive gains are having diminishing Returns over time this is so when we're Looking at this chart what is the Potential breakout if we were to see Something that we saw in 2021 2016 and All these other historical having events Well if we have a low interest rate Environment the fuds cut interest rates Money starts pouring back into the hands Of people that targeted area could very Well potentially be between 85,000 and 110,000 As you can see in the yellow Square now I am more of a conservative when it
Comes to this Viewpoint and that's Primarily going to be because when You're looking at the fear and greed on The market we're at a point where retail Is really uncertain this is Institutional money and that's going to Bring us directly back to reason number Three we need a bullish news event of Course you have the FMC uh meeting this Month which is where we're going to see The Federal Reserve more than likely cut Interest rates by 25 basis points and You can see that on poly markets where Traders think there is a more than 70% Chance of only a 25 basis point cut in The fed's next rate decision with that Fed rate decision okay of course you Have the CPI numbers and all the data Points that will help confirm that Outlook and that data point at the end Of this month but with that we need to See the liquidity in the crypto Market From stable coin to start entering back Into this market and I do believe this Is going to come down to dece or September 10th with the debate between Donald Trump and Harris right now Institutions are being very cautious When it comes into the risk-on aspect of The crypto market and we have a ton I Mean we're talking billions of dollars In liquidity sitting on the sidelines Right now in cash in stable coins ready To be used as fire power power back into
The crypto Market much of the capital is That is being allocated to stable coins Remains without providing buying Pressure on the order books but this Firepower could reach the market at any Time this is coming of course from Crypto Quant but we're not out of the Woods yet because if the feds do cut Interest rates there's even analysts Predicting a price plunge of Bitcoin to $45,000 potential effects of the Fed Rate cut the analyst noted that while Bitcoin is often considered as a hedge Against traditional Financial assets the Digital asset is still influenced by Macroeconomic conditions per the report Bitcoin has searched over 32% since Early August mainly driven by Traders Anticipating dobish comments on the FED However in the past week bit finex Analyst point out a shift in the market Dynamics with the spot Traders Aggressively selling their Bitcoin while Futures and Perpetual Market Spectators Are buying the analyst predicts that if The FED implements a modest 25 basis Point cut meaning we do not get a 50 or 75 basis point rate cut the market would Likely absorb the news much quicker Resulting in a long-term price Appreciation for Bitcoin as liquidity Increases and recessions fears ease so This goes to my point again longterm The Fed's Cutting this and the price
Prediction I'm going to give you guys is For 2024 in December this is going to be Bullish for the months of October November and December however on the Other hand implementing a more Aggressive 50 basis point could Temporarily Spike bitcoin's price by up To 8% but a 15 to 20% drop for Bitcoin in September is still possible this because The analysts speculate that Bitcoin Could face this decline in price Following a rate cut according to Historical data cycle peaks in Percentage returns typically decrease by 60 to 70% each time in addition to a Reduction in average bull market Corrections thus they project bitcoin's Price to be around $60,000 before rate Cuts so moving up into the rate decision At the fomc meeting we get a $60,000 Price action before placing the Potential bottom between the low of 50 And $40,000 and that brings me to of course My price prediction here what you're Looking at these two they kind of look Like gold posts this was of course October to the end of December in the Bll Run of 2020 Mass massive gains for Bitcoin right here is going to be October to once again the end of December in this market which means we Could see a similar pattern that we saw
In 2020 now my guess right now I do side With a little bit more of the bearish News leading up to that event I think we Can Trend sideways just like we saw of Course for the last few weeks in September in 2020 in September 2024 I believe that history might end up Rhyming here so I don't necessarily care That we get a breakout to the upside or The downside I think worst case scenario You Trend sideways maybe get a bit of a Pump into the market before coming back Down to roughly $45,000 this is going to be around my Worst case scenario before October November and December I do believe I am In the camp that there is like a 55% Chance Donald Trump has the election in The cards and if we get that positive Momentum we get Pro Bitcoin legislation We also have cheaper monetary policy we Have we've quantitated of easing at this Point we start reducing those interest Rate Cuts meaning personal savings rates Start to rise wages keep up against Inflation inflation costs come down as We produce more energy that could be What projects Bitcoin back to the $66,000 and even a potential breakout of 75k before maybe retesting and seeing New all-time highs in 2025
